Talent Vs. Luck

[GuesSs]

What's up everyone?

 

Awhile back I saw a topic talking about talent vs. hardwork and they were discussing if musical ability is more of a result of the work you put in or just natural born talent. It made me think about the music industry and I'm wondering if most people making it in the music industry are truly talented, or if they were just lucky. Quite often when you hear their success stories they either got a big break or just happened to be in the right place at the right time.  Or they were uploading their music online and someone important happened to stumble across it and decided to give them a chance. I don't think that any of these people are any more skilled than most people releasing their songs online they just happened to be lucky and caught a break that way. What are your opinions on this?

[starise]

I think a quick glance at the top charted songs says something. Some of those songs were clearly pushed along by the wind of corporate money. 

 

I know someone who has a gigantic Youtube and social network following. You can call me that guy who is too critical if you want to, but I think he only has a mediocre voice. In fact I know it isn't me. He isn't a wonderful singer. He's maybe "meh"...he squeaks by if you know what I mean. 

 

He doesn't have a clue how to mix, so he takes his ideas to a studio and has everything professionally done. His material has a polished sound to it. Not an extremely talented sound though. He would get maybe 10 plays on Soundcloud, I'm not kidding. Maybe 20 if he's lucky on a good day, and he has music in a popular genre.

 

How does he do it? He's a master of social networking and any other networking you can imagine plus, he's loaded. He has an almost unlimited budget. He probably puts more time into his networking/marketing than he does his music honestly. 

 

He sets aside some of his proceeds to benefit charity. As you may know, this can have a dual purpose He uses the same old well worn strategies boy bands have used for years. Go for the girls hearts. He still isn't a mega star, but he is very popular with lots of hits on all networks. You could say it's all because he has money, but I don't believe it's all about that. I think he's managed to use his marketing savy to get where he is. Sure, the money helps, but he's sticking to it. He won't quit. He has a dream. 

 

Corporations won't stand behind people who only have dreams. They want someone who will stand out in the rain in New York on a party float when its cold and windy and they haven't had any sleep to do a concert, then show up across the country for an interview in 6 more hours, then go somewhere else. If they say jump you ask, how high ?

 

 

[starise]

4 minutes ago, Jenn said:

And if there's going to be coffee

 

[Richard Tracey]

Tim who is this person you speak of... it might be interesting to see what his marketing strategy is. I'm sure I could go the teen heart throb route

[MonoStone]

7 hours ago, GuesSs said:

I'm wondering if most people making it in the music industry are truly talented, or if they were just lucky

 

Probably depends on what you mean by 'making it' and what you mean by 'lucky'...  a bit of luck and knowing the right people will get you so far... but to be really special needs a bit of talent and a lot of determination.

 

I think you can make luck too... you can't get a lucky break sat at home talking to no one other than us lot   but if you put yourself in places where you'll be noticed and where you'll get a helping hand up...and if you just don't stop... and if you have some talent... you can go far. I mean look at Noel Gallagher, a prime example of being in the right places, using the right connections, using other people's talent... I'm not knocking his ability at all, but that lad made the luck, buzzing around with the 'in' bands and what have you....and absolute commitment to success.... If you have some talent you can get lucky if you put it about enough and in the right places...

 

I don't think any artists get 'lottery' kind of lucky... no one just uploads a naff half baked track to soundcloud, doesn't bother to promote it at all or themselves at all, and suddenly as if by magic some big A&R guy accidentally finds it and bothers to listen and bothers to chase you. That kind of luck isn't out there... It always requires some effort and just bits of luck that you need to build upon if they happen.

 

 

 

 

[starise]

13 hours ago, Richard Tracey said:

Tim who is this person you speak of... it might be interesting to see what his marketing strategy is. I'm sure I could go the teen heart throb route

 

I cant d̶e̶w̶ do that. It's a p̶e̶r̶f̶e̶s̶s̶i̶o̶n̶e̶l̶   professional verbal agreement I had wit em. He basically gets pro videos made and posts a lot of them.

[GuesSs]

15 hours ago, MonoStone said:

I don't think any artists get 'lottery' kind of lucky... no one just uploads a naff half baked track to soundcloud, doesn't bother to promote it at all or themselves at all, and suddenly as if by magic some big A&R guy accidentally finds it and bothers to listen and bothers to chase you. That kind of luck isn't out there... It always requires some effort and just bits of luck that you need to build upon if they happen.

 

 

I do get what you're saying talent is 90% of the work and luck is that 10% that pushes you over the edge. I'm not familiar with Noel Gallagher however his story seems like a perfect example of that.  However, I think lottery luck is a very real and prominent thing. I'm more of a Hip Hop and R&B guy so I'll use examples pertaining to that. The Weeknd uploaded 3 songs to youtube and they happened to catch the attention of this blogger. The blogger talked about his songs and someone close to Drake saw the blog and showed Drake and Drake wanted to work with the Weeknd and his career took off from there.  Justin Bieber was just uploading videos of him singing on youtube (like thousands of aspiring singers do) and a manager connected to Usher loved what he heard and reached out and the rest is history. A rapper named Big Sean came across Kanye West and wanted to rap for him on the spot. Because Kanye felt like being decent and didn't tell him to f*ck off he let him rap for him and Kanye was impressed and gave him his contact information and his career started from there. 

 

I think there are a large number of people just as talented as The Weeknd, Bieber, or Big Sean they just haven't had the lucky opportunity. I think the gap that exist between the people truly making money of their music and the people at home aspiring is very very thin.

 

[GuesSs]

23 hours ago, starise said:

I think a quick glance at the top charted songs says something. Some of those songs were clearly pushed along by the wind of corporate money. 

 

I know someone who has a gigantic Youtube and social network following. You can call me that guy who is too critical if you want to, but I think he only has a mediocre voice. In fact I know it isn't me. He isn't a wonderful singer. He's maybe "meh"...he squeaks by if you know what I mean. 

 

He doesn't have a clue how to mix, so he takes his ideas to a studio and has everything professionally done. His material has a polished sound to it. Not an extremely talented sound though. He would get maybe 10 plays on Soundcloud, I'm not kidding. Maybe 20 if he's lucky on a good day, and he has music in a popular genre.

 

How does he do it? He's a master of social networking and any other networking you can imagine plus, he's loaded. He has an almost unlimited budget. He probably puts more time into his networking/marketing than he does his music honestly. 

 

He sets aside some of his proceeds to benefit charity. As you may know, this can have a dual purpose He uses the same old well worn strategies boy bands have used for years. Go for the girls hearts. He still isn't a mega star, but he is very popular with lots of hits on all networks. You could say it's all because he has money, but I don't believe it's all about that. I think he's managed to use his marketing savy to get where he is. Sure, the money helps, but he's sticking to it. He won't quit. He has a dream. 

 

Corporations won't stand behind people who only have dreams. They want someone who will stand out in the rain in New York on a party float when its cold and windy and they haven't had any sleep to do a concert, then show up across the country for an interview in 6 more hours, then go somewhere else. If they say jump you ask, how high ?

 

 

I'm familiar with artist like that. Sadly talent isn't the deciding factor for who makes it and who doesn't. It's the music business and quite often too many get focused on the music aspect and not enough on the business side which entails networking and marketability. I'm assuming this guy is pretty young and attractive and that is very marketable so even if  his music isn't the best people will still want to follow him and support him

[GuesSs]

5 minutes ago, Jenn said:

I, too, have heard about people just randomly being discovered like this.. kind of seems unbelievable and something you could never even begin to predict or imagine. 

However, I feel like more of this happened when the internet was just starting up.. When not everyone was uploading music.. Now, there's just sooooo much out there, and so little amounts of people actually going out in person. At least at a local level in America--the venues/social demand just aren't openly there.

But does that make it impossible? No... I still hope to find such an email in one of my inboxes one day  I can dream.. 

Ahh and that's another good point. A lot of people were also early to the soundcloud and youtube party before both platforms became over saturated and so they were able to get discovered and build a fanbase quickly.

[Richard Tracey]

1 hour ago, Jenn said:

I, too, have heard about people just randomly being discovered like this.. kind of seems unbelievable and something you could never even begin to predict or imagine. 

However, I feel like more of this happened when the internet was just starting up.. When not everyone was uploading music.. Now, there's just sooooo much out there, and so little amounts of people actually going out in person. At least at a local level in America--the venues/social demand just aren't openly there.

But does that make it impossible? No... I still hope to find such an email in one of my inboxes one day  I can dream.. 

 

I think the problem with this view is that the internet has been around a very long time, but most of these artists have been discovered in the last few years. Luck does come into this in a lot of respects, just like it probably did back in the day. Being in the right place at the right time, is the stuff made of legends. How many famous songs will have been created due to being in the right place at the right time... how many bands would have been formed and discovered because of this.

 

I think the work ethic is harder in the UK and Europe than in America, where it seems if you do r'n'b, hip-hop, country or rock you stand a better chance of succeeding than any other genre. The UK would never have been like that, but we are being over-saturated by these genres and music labels think that is what people want to hear and what is going to sell, due to The American charts.

 

I know that not everyone in America thinks that way, but it has always been hard for those genres that aren't like that to get a foot hold in the American charts. It has always been like that, with a lucky few getting the break.

 

I have said before and I'll say it again, we are force fed the same mediocre rubbish because they think that is what people like, but when people aren't getting to hear anything else, then how are they to know any different.

[MonoStone]

5 hours ago, GuesSs said:

I do get what you're saying talent is 90% of the work and luck is that 10% that pushes you over the edge. I'm not familiar with Noel Gallagher however his story seems like a perfect example of that.  However, I think lottery luck is a very real and prominent thing. I'm more of a Hip Hop and R&B guy so I'll use examples pertaining to that. The Weeknd uploaded 3 songs to youtube and they happened to catch the attention of this blogger. The blogger talked about his songs and someone close to Drake saw the blog and showed Drake and Drake wanted to work with the Weeknd and his career took off from there.  Justin Bieber was just uploading videos of him singing on youtube (like thousands of aspiring singers do) and a manager connected to Usher loved what he heard and reached out and the rest is history. A rapper named Big Sean came across Kanye West and wanted to rap for him on the spot. Because Kanye felt like being decent and didn't tell him to f*ck off he let him rap for him and Kanye was impressed and gave him his contact information and his career started from there. 

 

I think there are a large number of people just as talented as The Weeknd, Bieber, or Big Sean they just haven't had the lucky opportunity. I think the gap that exist between the people truly making money of their music and the people at home aspiring is very very thin.

 

How many subscribers did The Weeknd and Beiber have before getting noticed by someone influential? 

 

Maybe they really had just uploaded and had like 5 views from their mum, dad, uncle, best mate, and 'some guy close to Drake'...but I doubt it... I suspect their profile was already fairly high, I suspect they were getting a large number of views and subscribers already....

 

So that is my point. That is not 'Lottery Luck'...

 

Lottery Luck is where you upload a track with no effort, don't bother to promote it or work at it, and get two views....one your mum and one the head of Sony in a good mood off his kite on crack ready to sign anyone!!!!   You get my point now?

 

Sorry if I wasn't more clear about that. But that was my point. And I suspect that The Weekend and Bieber both put a shed load of effort into perfecting what they did in terms of the music AND the promotion/performance/presentation.... again, that is not 'Lottery Luck'. They MADE the luck... they made it happen.

[GuesSs]

On 8/23/2017 at 6:47 PM, MonoStone said:

How many subscribers did The Weeknd and Beiber have before getting noticed by someone influential? 

 

Maybe they really had just uploaded and had like 5 views from their mum, dad, uncle, best mate, and 'some guy close to Drake'...but I doubt it... I suspect their profile was already fairly high, I suspect they were getting a large number of views and subscribers already....

 

So that is my point. That is not 'Lottery Luck'...

 

Lottery Luck is where you upload a track with no effort, don't bother to promote it or work at it, and get two views....one your mum and one the head of Sony in a good mood off his kite on crack ready to sign anyone!!!!   You get my point now?

 

Sorry if I wasn't more clear about that. But that was my point. And I suspect that The Weekend and Bieber both put a shed load of effort into perfecting what they did in terms of the music AND the promotion/performance/presentation.... again, that is not 'Lottery Luck'. They MADE the luck... they made it happen.

I had a little more time than usual on my hands today so I did more research on this than I should have, but The Weeknd did indeed have lottery luck. The Weeknd started his youtube channel Feb 24th 2011 and he uploaded 3 tracks. One of those songs appeared in a Pitchfork article for best new track.

 

http://pitchfork.com/reviews/tracks/12131-the-weeknd-what-you-need/

 

There's a link to the article if you're curious to see for yourself, but as you can see that article was published on March 4th. So in a little less than 2 weeks he had a track published in a major music blog and garnered a lot of attention from that. He was able to retain that attention due to his mystique, talent, and his very dark and druggy style of R&B he had that wasn't heard before at the time but who's to say he would have ever gained that intitial attraction without that articles promotion. All the stars perfectly aligned for him to be where he is today. Same with Big Sean Kanye West is a busy person and genrally doesn't stop for anyone but he decided to give him a chance on the spot and he wound up signing him. IMagine if Kanye decided not ot listen to him he may not have the career he has. I think lottery luck most definetly is a thing, but mainting the attention you get comes down to talent and hard work.  As far as Beiber I'm not sure what his subscriber count was prior to him blowing up.

[MonoStone]

We still have to consider the original question/point - Talent Vs Luck

 

TheWeeknd might have been discovered quickly and by accident. People win the actually lottery too. It's a rare thing!

 

The only way to decide whether TheWeeknd found success through pure luck rather than because he was very talented and just had a lucky break (which would speed up success rather than be the one factor) would be to judge whether he truly had an outstanding talent or not. I can't judge because that kind of music bores the crap out of me. I heard his first YouTube release (I looked it up since you mentioned) and I thought it was just dull, but I think all that style of music is dull.... I can though honestly say that he clearly had a good voice and that even though that early production wasn't perfect, it had a certain vibe and he performed it like a star. So I'd say he put a good deal of effort in,  or had some amount of natural talent... and creating something really, really good (or something that a lot of people think is really really good) is part of making your own luck...

 

No doubt there are plenty of 'stars' out there who are mediocre and seem to be just lucky, some of them are just lucky...but some work hard to just be noticed and to find fame, even if they are mediocre or even just crap without the help of songwriters and producers.

 

Who knows... but you can't rely on luck, especially not such rare luck, so you have to focus on making something special and working hard to find success, if that's what you want.

 

 

[starise]

On 8/23/2017 at 7:03 PM, Jenn said:

Obviously none of you are Irish 

 

Ahem........I wasn't born there, but I have it in me. Only the unlucky parts though.  I pulled the three leaf clover. 

 

Anyways, you all are pretty lucky that I didn't become famous.

 

Time to pick a few more lottery numbers. At the very least I'll help someone else become lucky.

[Richard Tracey]

At the moment you are more likely to be noticed if you do r'n'b or hip hop than any other genre. Why? Well that's because that is what dominates in America unfortunately and therefore dominates everywhere else. The unfortunate thing that comes with those two genres dominating is..... you get so much mediocre crap that gets released and becomes big because it is being pushed by the big music majors as they think this is what everyone wants. Now you could look at this another way. Why does it dominate and why is there so much of it? Is it because people really like it? Or is it because it is easy to do and to push out there? Most of it all sounds the same, which is why there has been so many issues with plagiarism.

 

I think the music majors need to take a step back and let r'n'b and hip hop fade away for a while. It needs to re-invent itself as it is stagnant and as Dek mentioned above, boring. I get fed up when you put on the radio 90% of the crap they play is r'n'b and hip hop orientated.

[MonoStone]

6 hours ago, Richard Tracey said:

I get fed up when you put on the radio

 

I gave up putting on the radio, it's been just full of crap for a long time now (UK radio, I don't know about US)

 

And this got me thinking, did the internet kill the radio star, and the tv star, or did the crap being pushed on those formats by irritating idiot presenters cause too many to go running to find music online?  I dunno which way round it was.

 

Anyway... getting off topic.... but R&B just isn't my cuppa (I still don't get why it's called R&B either), and nobody has done anything interesting with Rap since Roots Manuva.... everyone else churns out the same old...  R&B and Hip Hop seem like the worst kind of manufactured pop now, it's like Pete Waterman's 'hip' brother (P-Wet?) is running it all

 

 

 

 

[Just1L]

9 minutes ago, MonoStone said:

 

I gave up putting on the radio, it's been just full of crap for a long time now (UK radio, I don't know about US)

 

And this got me thinking, did the internet kill the radio star, and the tv star, or did the crap being pushed on those formats by irritating idiot presenters cause too many to go running to find music online?  I dunno which way round it was.

 

Anyway... getting off topic.... but R&B just isn't my cuppa (I still don't get why it's called R&B either), and nobody has done anything interesting with Rap since Roots Manuva.... everyone else churns out the same old...  R&B and Hip Hop seem like the worst kind of manufactured pop now, it's like Pete Waterman's 'hip' brother (P-Wet?) is running it all

 

 

Move to St. Louis. There really are lots of good stations. Some for when you want to hear what you used to hear and some that offer some new music. A rather new alternative station popped up some time ago. The "general" radio play has "Opheila" and that "Wish I knew you when I was Young" song to death and their rotation isn't the strongest. But they have different shows every once in a while with new music, rare music (LOL what's rare with the internet these days) and other cool things. Another great channel is KDHX 88.1. It's an Indie radio station that is actually part of my main goal (as in I want to send them a CD when I have one to try to get it on there. They play local artists, new music, jazz, blues, bluegrass, far east music. Just about everything depending on the time of the day and the DJ. There's an older lady on there who must be playing actual LPs. She talks soooooooo sloooooooow it makes me and the kids laugh. But eventually, the tune will start and it's all older music but has the coolness of it being played with a needle. So come on over. You can stay in our pool house. 

[GuesSs]

7 hours ago, Richard Tracey said:

At the moment you are more likely to be noticed if you do r'n'b or hip hop than any other genre. Why? Well that's because that is what dominates in America unfortunately and therefore dominates everywhere else. The unfortunate thing that comes with those two genres dominating is..... you get so much mediocre crap that gets released and becomes big because it is being pushed by the big music majors as they think this is what everyone wants. Now you could look at this another way. Why does it dominate and why is there so much of it? Is it because people really like it? Or is it because it is easy to do and to push out there? Most of it all sounds the same, which is why there has been so many issues with plagiarism.

 

I think the music majors need to take a step back and let r'n'b and hip hop fade away for a while. It needs to re-invent itself as it is stagnant and as Dek mentioned above, boring. I get fed up when you put on the radio 90% of the crap they play is r'n'b and hip hop orientated.

I think you may be a little misinformed on the current state of rnb and hip hop and why it is so popular. It is so popular because frankly it is what people want to hear. Radio has very little to do with it. Tyler the creator has never had a song played on the radio and his most recent album sold 90k. Logic is another rapper who has never had a song on the radio really and his most recent album sold 196k not counting streams. Most rappers and rnb artist nowadays have all but abandoned the traditional press run cycle that includes announcing a release date months in advance followed by releassing singles to get people excited for their project. That style of doing things is all but dead in those genres. Now when an artist has a project they want to release they simply tweet or put on instagram that it is dropping tonight and their fans go crazy.

 

At most they may announce at album release 2 weeks in advance. With Kendrick lamars most recent album he announced it 2 weeks before it came out and it sold over 600k. The point i'm trying to make is it is dominating because it's what people want. Radio isn't dictating what is hot and popular the internet does and then it eventually makes its way over to radio. When artist release their albums on such short notice it doesn't give labels time to set up interviews and push singles. They drop it out of nowhere and their fans stream the f*ck out of it and whichever song has the most plays typically ends up being the song you hear on the radio. Artist doing things this way puts the power in the fans hands and allows them to champion which song is the most popular instead of people at a label who are out of touch.

 

Futhermore,  I can't think of the last time anyone in my age group (18-25) even listened to the radio. Most of the time we just get in our cars, plug our phones into the aux chord, and play whatever playlist we have on soundcloud, spotify, itunes etc. Personally I have maybe listened to the radio twice so far this year. It's not about radio play anymore it's all about streaming. Most of these rappers and rnb artist aren't releasing their projects for a fee they simply put it on one of these streaming platforms and make their money on the back end up through touring.

 

And that brings me to my final point. The truth is hip hop and rnb is what is resonating most with the demographics labels and streaming services hope to target. It's less about record labels pushing an agenda and more about the people dictating what they want. These genres represent youth, freedom, and rebellion. It is what young people wanna hear when they are at a party and having a good time with their friends.  These are the types of fans that are the most coveted because they are the ones who are going to buy tickets for the live show, buy the merchandise, and stream the album over and over again.  They're the ones who are going to go to the music festivals and scream their ass off. Hip and rnb will continue to dominate for years to come because it's not just about the music. It's a culture and lifestyle that resonates and is appealing to the youth. Music majors aren't deciding what's hot in this day and age they are playing catch up and trying to ride the wave of what's made popular by fans.

[GuesSs]

1 hour ago, MonoStone said:

 

I gave up putting on the radio, it's been just full of crap for a long time now (UK radio, I don't know about US)

 

And this got me thinking, did the internet kill the radio star, and the tv star, or did the crap being pushed on those formats by irritating idiot presenters cause too many to go running to find music online?  I dunno which way round it was.

 

Anyway... getting off topic.... but R&B just isn't my cuppa (I still don't get why it's called R&B either), and nobody has done anything interesting with Rap since Roots Manuva.... everyone else churns out the same old...  R&B and Hip Hop seem like the worst kind of manufactured pop now, it's like Pete Waterman's 'hip' brother (P-Wet?) is running it all

 

 

 

 

The internet is the best thing that has happened to the music industry. It allows fans to champion what they want to hear instead of waitng for something to get fed to them by labels. More artist are able to be independent now because they no longer have to feel forced to appeal to a certain demographic. With social media they are well aware of who their core audience is and they can just continue to make music that appeals to them and make money. People run online to find music because radio isn't what it used to be. Like what I said to Just1L it may not resonate with you but it resonates with the youth and they're the most passionate fanbase. I agree a lot of it sounds the same but its not because its manufactured by labels it's because artist know what's popular and trending amongst their fanbase and they keep making music that they will consume.  Those 2 genres dominate because again it's what young people want to hear when they are at a party or going wild at a music festival which is why music in those genres get so many streamns

[Just1L]

14 minutes ago, GuesSs said:

The internet is the best thing that has happened to the music industry. It allows fans to champion what they want to hear instead of waitng for something to get fed to them by labels. More artist are able to be independent now because they no longer have to feel forced to appeal to a certain demographic. With social media they are well aware of who their core audience is and they can just continue to make music that appeals to them and make money. People run online to find music because radio isn't what it used to be. Like what I said to Just1L it may not resonate with you but it resonates with the youth and they're the most passionate fanbase.

 

Wasn't me. You made a comment here though that is spot on. Being aware of their core audience. Not everyone listens to music online. Not everyone listens to actual LPs. Not everyone still buys CDs, some people do all of those, some do none and only listen for free when they can, etc... But I think you can still make some cash if you're inclined in each of those areas depending on 1) What kind of music make, 2) What's the demographic of people interested in that music and 3) What is the avenue most of that demographic go to listen to music. Ideally, you'd cover all your bases but if you can't, it seems it would be smart to start with where your biggest audience is listening and go from there. The best part is that for the most part, you can get your stuff out there, nicely done and cut out the labels, producers, etc… if your talented enough with a little luck mixed in here and there.